Future capacity growth of energy technologies: are scenarios consistent with historical evidence?

Future scenarios of the energy system under greenhouse gas emission constraints depict dramatic growth in a range of energy technologies. Technological growth dynamics observed historically provide a useful comparator for these future trajectories. We find that historical time series data reveal a consistent relationship between how much a technology’s cumulative installed capacity grows, and how long this growth takes. This relationship between extent (how much) and duration (for how long) is consistent across both energy supply and end-use technologies, and both established and emerging technologies. We then develop and test an approach for using this historical relationship to assess technological trajectories in future scenarios. Our approach for “learning from the past” contributes to the assessment and verification of integrated assessment and energy-economic models used to generate quantitative scenarios. Using data on power generation technologies from two such models, we also find a consistent extent - duration relationship across both technologies and scenarios. This relationship describes future low carbon technological growth in the power sector which appears to be conservative relative to what has been evidenced historically. Specifically, future extents of capacity growth are comparatively low given the lengthy time duration of that growth. We treat this finding with caution due to the low number of data points. Yet it remains counter-intuitive given the extremely rapid growth rates of certain low carbon technologies under stringent emission constraints. We explore possible reasons for the apparent scenario conservatism, and find parametric or structural conservatism in the underlying models to be one possible explanation

Risk Hedging Strategies under Energy System and Climate Policy Uncertainties

The future development of the energy sector is rife with uncertainties. They concern virtually the entire energy chain, from resource extraction to conversion technologies, energy demand, and the stringency of future environmental policies. Investment decisions today need thus not only to be cost-effective from the present perspective, but have to take into account also the imputed future risks of above uncertainties. This paper introduces a newly developed modeling decision framework with endogenous representation of above uncertainties. We employ stochastic modeling techniques within a system engineering model of the global energy system and implement several alternative representations of risk. We aim to identify salient characteristics of least-cost risk hedging strategies that are adapted to considerably reduce future risks and are hence robust against a wide range of future uncertainties. These lead to significant changes in response to energy system and carbon price uncertainties, in particular, (i) higher short- to medium-term investments into advanced technologies, (ii) pronounced emissions reductions, and (iii) diversification of the technology portfolio. From a methodological perspective, we find that there are strong interactions and synergies between different types of uncertainties. Cost-effective risk hedging strategies thus need to take a holistic view and comprehensively account for all uncertainties jointly. With respect to costs, relatively modest risk premiums (or hedging investments) can significantly reduce the vulnerability of the energy system against the associated uncertainties. The extent of early investments, diversification and emissions reductions, however, depends on the risk premium that decision makers are willing to pay to respond to prevailing uncertainties, and remains thus one of the key policy variables

Modeling Investment Decisions in Gas Pipeline Networks: A Game-theoretic Mixed Complementarity Problem Formulation and its Application to the Chinese Gas Market

Rapidly growing natural gas demand in China has formed a precondition to investigate the potential of several pipelines from Russia and other CIS countries, which could possibly head their flows to the Chinese natural gas market. The variety of proposed projects and the difference in their characteristics results in competition and, therefore, in order to assess the projects. economic perspectives a game-theoretic approach is used. A two-step procedure for the problem's game-theoretic formulation is proposed. In the instantaneous supply game the players have the possibility to supply natural gas to the market. Each player determines his or her supply levels in such a way that profits are maximized, taking into account the supplies of all other players. In the game of timing the players have to decide when to construct their pipelines. Due to the growing demand for natural gas, the time of entering the market plays an important role. The players seek to maximize the net present value of their investment by choosing the pipelines. start of commercial operation from a discrete set of years. The equilibria obtained from the supply game are used to calculate the payoff matrices for each pipeline in the timing game. Both games are formulated and implemented as mixed complementarity problems which allows the analysis of the competition of up to 5 pipeline projects simultaneously. Results for the Chinese natural gas market are presented and discussed with an emphasis on sensitivity analysis

Microwave Response and Spin Waves in Superconducting Ferromagnets

Excitation of spin waves is considered in a superconducting ferromagnetic slab with the equilibrium magnetization both perpendicular and parallel to the surface. The surface impedance is calculated and its behavior near propagation thresholds is analyzed. Influence of non-zero magnetic induction at the surface is considered in various cases. The results provide a basis for investigation of materials with coexisting superconductivity and magnetism by microwave response measurements.Comment: 10 pages, 7 figure

The Next Energy Transition: Transformative Pathways, Choices and Opportunities

This report provides a high-level summary of the transformational scenario pathways developed by the IIASA Energy Program within the framework of the Global Energy Assessment (GEA). These pathways approach the global transition toward sustainable development in an integrated, holistic manner, taking a broad view of the four main energy challenges faced by society in the 21st century: providing universal access to modern energy for all; avoiding dangerous climate change; reducing the impacts of energy on human health and the environment; and enhancing energy security. Developing solutions to these challenges is one of the chief aims of policy makers, and for this reason this report attempts to synthesize a multitude of strategic insights that have resulted from the pathways analysis. The overarching objective of the report is to provide guidance on how to facilitate the transformation of the energy system to achieve the multiple energy objectives. Focus is given to the required pace of the transformation at both the global and regional levels, as well as to the types of measures that will be needed to ensure a successful transition. This report is complemented by three interactive, web-based analytical tools, which have been developed by the IIASA Energy Program in support of this study: (1) the GEA Scenario Database, which documents the full suite of transition pathways in great detail, allowing the user to explore the consequences of different supply and demand-side technology choices for the feasibility and costs of reaching the multiple energy objectives at both the global and regional levels; (2) the IIASA ENE-MCA Policy Analysis Tool, which permits the concurrent assessment of synergies and trade-offs between the multiple energy objectives at the global scale; and (3) the IIASA Energy Access Tool (ENACT), which helps gauge the effectiveness of various energy access policies and measures in the major developing regions of the world

Der Nutzen liegt auf der Hand

Im September 2011 präsentierte UN-Generalsekretär Ban Ki-moon die Initiative „Sustainable Energy for All“ mit drei globalen Zielen, die bis 2030 erreicht werden sollen. Erhebliche Investitionen werden dafür notwendig sein. Nach den Ergebnissen einer weltweiten Studie erscheint ihre Umsetzung jedoch machbar

Critical dynamics of diluted relaxational models coupled to a conserved density (diluted model C)

We consider the influence of quenched disorder on the relaxational critical dynamics of a system characterized by a non-conserved order parameter coupled to the diffusive dynamics of a conserved scalar density (model C). Disorder leads to model A critical dynamics in the asymptotics, however it is the effective critical behavior which is often observed in experiments and in computer simulations and this is described by the full set of dynamical equations of diluted model C. Indeed different scenarios of effective critical behavior are predicted.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figure